Ever since asking Is SPC Obsolete? on this blog almost 6 years ago, multiple sources have told me that the XmR chart is a wonderful and currently useful process behavior chart, universally applicable, a data analysis panacea, requiring no assumption on the structure of the monitored variables. So I dug into it and this what I found. […]
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In statistics on time series with “moving” in their name, each value is correlated with past and future neighbors — that is, the series is autocorrelated. It affects the way you can use these statistics to detect anomalies and issue alarms. The moving range in the XmR chart is a case in point. Its autocorrelation in […]
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A conversation with Franck Vermet about problem-solving tools for factory operators caused me to revisit the 7 tools of QC from 50 years ago and ponder how they should be updated with current data science. Data Science for Operators, as a book, remains to be written. If you google this phrase today, what comes up […]
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Whether we like it or not, the past months have given us a crash course in epidemiology. COVID-19 has taken terms like reproduction number, herd immunity, social distancing, or flattening the curve from research literature to daily news and instructions for visitors to California State Parks. We are in the middle of a pandemic we […]
The post The Math of COVID-19, And Factories appeared first on Michel Baudin's Blog.
Factories are controlled environments, designed to put out consistent products in volumes according to a plan. Controls, however, are never perfect, and managers respond to series of events of both internal and external origin. An event is an instantaneous state change, with a timestamp but no duration. An operation on a manufacturing shop floor is […]
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As part of a discussion started by Lance Richardson on LinkedIn, I stated as a fact that SPC was not part of the Toyota Production System (TPS), which prompted several contradictors to tell me I didn’t know what I was talking about. The “evidence” they provided, however, does not refute my statement. It confirms it […]
The post Does Toyota Use SPC? appeared first on Michel Baudin's Blog.
The post on Does Toyota Use SPC? elicited many comments on LinkedIn. Some suggested that it was scoping SPC too narrowly when contrasting it with Toyota’s approach. In fact, SPC as referenced in the post is the body of knowledge described in the American literature on quality and taught in professional courses. As to why […]
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Pfizer-BioNTech just announced the results of a COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial of 12- to 15-year olds. Because the vaccinated group had 0 infections, the news media jumped to the conclusion that the vaccine has “100% efficacy” on 12- to 15-year olds. That is what the chyron said on NBC news. A look at the published […]
The post COVID-19 Pfizer Vaccine Study On Teens appeared first on Michel Baudin's Blog.
My last two long posts were about evaluating sales forecasts. They begged the question of how you generate these forecasts. This is a partial answer, about what you can tell from a history of sales through both classical methods and recent developments, particularly probability forecasting.
Contents
Are Sales Easy To Forecast? Rob Hyndman stated […]
The post Sales Forecasts – Part 3. Generating Probability Forecasts appeared first on Michel Baudin's Blog.
This post and the previous one use Atlantic hurricanes as a vehicle to show what various visualizations can do. It’s not about second-guessing the data scientists at NOAA who have produced similar displays and much deeper analyses. The point is to show tools anyone can apply to data that may have nothing to do with […]
The post Always the Hurricanes Blowing (Part 2) appeared first on Michel Baudin's Blog.
